Market Update - Stephanie Witt's Blog on Marin County Real Estate
39 Ethel Ave, Mill Valley CA
212 Lovell Ave, Mill Valley CA
Napili Shores Rental
Ocean Front with Spectacular Views
Visiting Napili Shores is like staying with a best friend. The surroundings become immediately familiar and it just feels great to be in a sunny tropical garden, near a beautiful beach at Napili Bay, on private oceanfront with spectacular views of Molokai and Lanai. You can't wait to dive into the warm Pacific Ocean. And you're simply thrilled to be on Maui!
Napili's quiet neighborhood is as comfortable as your own backyard. But the very upscale Kapalua Resort is just minutes away if you get the urge to dress for dinner or to challenge your game on championship golf courses.
- Oceanfront condo at Napili Bay with spectacular views of Molokai & Lanai islands
- Oceanfront Studio, second floor, end unit
- Fully furnished kitchen
- Short stroll to the beach at Napili Bay offering excellent body surfing and snorkeling
- Oceanfront location is ideal for whale-sightings December to April
- Championship golf courses and tennis available at nearby Kapalua Resort
- New Fish and Poi Restaurant serves lunch and dinner in a peaceful garden setting
- Oceanside Gazebo Restaurant serves breakfast and lunch
The Best Offense is Good Defense
First posted by Stephanie on Mill Valley Patch Posted on April 30, 2013 at 3:07 pm
We’ve heard of buyers having a home inspection done when in the process of purchasing a home, but we don’t hear of sellers doing their own investigations. Why? Here are 5 seller benefits to having a general home inspection and/or pest inspection prior to putting a house on the market.
1. Costs – The average cost of a general home inspection ranges between $450 and $600, depending on the size of the home, and $350 to $450 for a pest inspection. If you rely on the buyer to reveal any costly issues, then you may be on the hook for cost estimates obtained from the buyer’s investigations on their repair requests. If you resolve issues on your own with your inspections, you have more choices as to choosing the most affordable service provider for the job. Also, the reports become part of disclosure to give Buyers a heads up and truly underline the “as is” clause in sales contracts.
2. City Inspections – If your property is located within the city inspection jurisdiction, you are at the mercy of the City if you leave things to chance. If the City reveals any issues that need to be resolved or (re)permitted prior to close, this could delay the close of escrow and possibly add to your selling costs. Unpermitted work is a significant reason as to why houses fall out of contract.
3. Convenience - With today’s busy lifestyle it’s always refreshing to do things at our own pace. Doing a pre-inspection offers you better control of your time which can reduce anxious moments.
4. Time – Knowing that you’ve completed a lot of general repairs based on a pre-inspection will not only shorten days on the market by appealing to a buyer it will accelerate your ability to close escrow sooner than later.
5. Peace of Mind – Selling a property is an exciting time, and doesn’t have to be the most stressful thing you’ve ever done. Planning ahead by doing pre-inspections will provide you more peace of mind as you roll with all the other unexpected issues that can surface during the sale of your home.
Of course I know that taking a chance on the results of a buyer’s inspection report might benefit you too. It’s possible that buyers might not be concerned with issues revealed on their home inspections, but I have to say as a local agent for over the last 24 years, buyers typically ask for some type of compensation or credit for items a buyer deem in need of repair or replacement. The best offence is a good defense, and that’s knowing and resolving issues in advance!
Marin County: Q1 Results
| Marin County sellers enjoyed the best of both worlds in the first quarter of 2013: Their homes sold quicker than they have in years, and median sale prices rose considerably. For buyers, it was another story. The supply of homes for sale continued to shrink and multiple offers were rampant – frequently a dozen or more offers for a single property. In particular, many first-time buyers were disheartened as others topped their bids with all-cash offers time and again. The tight market prompted a rise in off-market deals – transactions that close without ever being listed on real estate websites or multiple listing services. Tiburon was especially active in all price points, especially the market for homes priced at $2 million and higher. In Novato, homes priced at $800,000 to $900,000 sold as soon as they became available, and sales rose noticeably in the $2 million-plus market. Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Corte Madera were also busy in the quarter. The quarter saw fewer distressed homes on the market. In recent years, the number of short sales, foreclosures, and bank-owned homes had been on the rise, but that supply has mostly sold. Investors remain active in the market, though their numbers are not as high as in 2011 and 2012. Looking Forward: We expect to see more homes coming on the market in April and continuing through the summer months. Multiple offers will remain the norm throughout the second quarter, although a greater supply of homes will bring more balance to the market. Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities. |
| Median Sales Price |
| The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price. |
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| Click to view larger chart |
| Months’ Supply of Inventory |
| The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market. |
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| Click to view larger chart |
| Average Days on the Market |
| Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close. |
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| Click to view larger chart |
| Percentage of Properties Under Contract |
| Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. |
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| Click to view larger chart |
| Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price |
| Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region. |
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| Click to view larger chart |
| A Closer Look at Marin County |
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| Sellers, Start Your Engines! |
| After record-breaking results in 2012 for units and volume of residential real estate, activity in the first quarter suggests 2013 will once again reach new highs. Local trends drive the dynamics of our markets, but overall we expect 15 to 17 percent increases in units sold in the Bay Area and price appreciation of 4 to 9 percent. The single most important dynamic driving this growth is our healthy regional job market. Economist Stephen Levy noted that the Bay Area led California job growth in January, with San Francisco at the forefront and the Oakland, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo metro areas all posting gains far above the state and national average. These are high-quality, high-paying jobs in the technology and professional services sectors. We believe confidence in jobs and business in general is driving consumer confidence and the intense pent-up demand for residential real estate. 2013 may be the last year of this cycle that money (mortgage interest rates) remains on sale as real estate prices lift from the bottom and consistent appreciation returns for a sustainable period of time. Intense demand is occurring even as the supply of available homes remains constrained, and coupled with modest price appreciation is driving the return of equity into homes. This may allow more sellers to realize gains, sell existing homes, and trade up to new dream homes or neighborhoods. These dynamics are occurring in nearly every one of the markets Pacific Union serves, and we expect it to entice move-up buyers to act – making them a likely source for new, mid-tier inventory. For specific market performance or advice on your specific property, please reach out to your local Pacific Union real estate professional. And enjoy the warmer spring months! |
| The Sellers’ Market Heats Up |
| It has been a bitterly cold few years for would-be sellers in the Bay Area, but spring is bringing welcome warmth for both home values and buyer activity. Home prices have been rising for a year across all of Pacific Union's eight regions in the Bay Area and Tahoe/Truckee. In San Francisco the median sales price of homes rose nearly 30 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and double-digit increases were recorded in all other regions as well. In a recent Wall Street Journal survey economists agreed that home prices will continue rising at least through 2017, and the Bay Area's strong economy suggests price increases here will outpace those in most of the rest of the nation. Those rising values translate to greater equity, and many homeowners who believe they are “underwater” – owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – may be surprised to learn that they've regained equity based on recent sale prices for comparable homes in their neighborhood. Why the lift? In part it's because a persistent shortage of homes for sale has created a veritable army of aggressive and highly motivated buyers who are willing to outspend the competition. For example, in our East Bay offices, 90 percent of transactions in the first quarter involved multiple offers; on average, homes sold for 13 percent over asking price. Homes in the Bay Area sold within weeks of coming on the market, frequently in all-cash deals, and multiple bids pushed sales prices above asking prices in all regions, much to the delight of sellers. |
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| Click to view larger chart. |
| Overall, the increased velocity of real estate activity in the first quarter of 2013 was nothing short of remarkable. This means that sellers looking to trade up to a higher-priced home may now make significant gains in the current market. For example, consider a homeowner whose property was valued at $300,000 in 2006 but dropped 20 percent in value to $240,000, for a loss of $60,000. That same 20 percent drop in value for a higher-priced home – say, a $450,000 home now valued at $360,000 – gives a trade-up buyer savings of $90,000, or a net gain of $30,000 on the new home. Today's low mortgage rates also offer serious savings to trade-up buyers. In 2002, when the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.5 percent, the monthly payment on a $500,000 loan was $3,160. At current rates, which hover around 3.6 percent, approximately the same loan payment would buy a home with a $700,000 mortgage – a net gain of $200,000. The benefit won't last forever, so prospective sellers should move quickly: A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will average 4.4 percent by the end of 2013. That 0.8 point rise will add $230 to the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage. So if you're thinking about selling in this blazing market, don't get burned by waiting too long. And count on the expertise of a real estate professional who knows the local market to help assess your home's current value and prospects. Looks like it's shaping up to be a hot season for sellers! |
| Bay Area 10-Year Overview |
| Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the first quarter of 2013, with a glance back at the 10 preceding first quarters. |
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The Bay Area Sellers’ Market Heats Up
In a few days, Pacific Union will release first-quarter results for our Bay Area and Tahoe/Truckee real estate markets. Home sales and prices rose solidly in the quarter despite an exceptionally tight supply of available properties, setting the stage for a very busy year ahead.
But first we want to give you an early look at a feature story included in the Q1 report — a report on how today’s aggressive market conditions are helping underwater homeowners regain equity and giving them added incentives to put their properties on the market.
It has been a bitterly cold few years for would-be sellers in the Bay Area, but spring is bringing welcome warmth for both home values and buyer activity.
Home prices have been rising for a year across all of Pacific Union’s eight regions in the Bay Area and Tahoe/Truckee. In San Francisco the median sales price of homes rose nearly 30 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and all other regions saw double-digit increases as well.
In a recent Wall Street Journal survey, economists agreed that home prices will continue rising at least through 2017, and the Bay Area’s strong economy suggests price increases here will outpace those in most of the rest of the nation.
Those rising values translate to greater equity, and many homeowners who believe they are “underwater” – owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – may be surprised to learn that they’ve regained equity based on recent sales prices for comparable homes in their neighborhood.
Why the lift? In part it’s because a persistent shortage of homes for sale has created a veritable army of aggressive and highly motivated buyers who are willing to outspend the competition. For example, in our East Bay offices, 90 percent of transactions in the first quarter involved multiple offers; on average, homes sold for 13 percent over asking price.
Homes in the Bay Area sold within weeks of coming on the market, frequently in all-cash deals, and multiple bids pushed sales prices above asking prices in all regions, much to the delight of sellers.
Overall, the increased velocity of real estate activity in the first quarter of 2013 was nothing short of remarkable.
This means that sellers looking to trade up to a higher-priced home may now make significant gains in the current market. For example, consider a homeowner whose property was valued at $300,000 in 2006 but dropped 20 percent in value to $240,000, for a loss of $60,000. That same 20 percent drop in value for a higher-priced home – say, a $450,000 home now worth $360,000 – gives a trade-up buyer savings of $90,000, or a net gain of $30,000 on the new home.
Today’s low mortgage rates also offer serious savings to trade-up buyers. In 2002, when the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.5 percent, the monthly payment on a $500,000 loan was $3,160. At current rates, which hover around 3.6 percent, approximately the same loan payment would buy a home with a $700,000 mortgage – a net gain of $200,000.
The benefit won’t last forever, so prospective sellers should move quickly: A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will average 4.4 percent by the end of 2013. That 0.8 point rise will add $230 to the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage.
So if you’re thinking about selling in this blazing market, don’t get burned by waiting too long. And count on the expertise of a real estate professional who knows the local market to help assess your home’s current value and prospects.
Looks like it’s shaping up to be a hot season for sellers!
Tight Supply of Homes Driving Prices Higher, Holding Back Sales in Bay Area, California
Bay Area home prices continued to climb higher in March, with the median price of all sales up 33 percent from a year earlier.
All nine Bay Area counties posted double-digit increases in year-over-year median sale prices, led by Alameda County (36.1 percent), San Mateo County (34.5 percent), and Marin County (32.2 percent), according to statistics the California Association of Realtors, or C.A.R., released Monday.
Meanwhile, a continued shortage of available homes cut into sales totals. March home sales were down an average 9 percent in the Bay Area, year over year, and ranged from a 24.9 percent decline in Solano County to a 6.1 percent rise in Marin County.
Statewide, median sale prices of single-family homes were up 28.2 percent in March from a year earlier, while overall sales were down 4.9 percent.
“No doubt the dearth of home listings is driving the upsurge in the median price, as is an increase in sales in the higher-priced segments,” C.A.R. chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young said in a statement. “Sales of homes priced $500,000 and higher are up more than 34 percent from last year, and have been on a rising trend since early 2012.
“Sales growth in the coastal regions – Marin, Orange, San Diego, and San Luis Obispo, in particular – helped push the statewide median price up to the highest level in more than four years.”
The C.A.R.’s monthly sales and price report showed that the available supply of homes for sale fell significantly in March, dropping to a 2.9-month supply, as measured by the association’s Unsold Inventory Index. That’s down from 3.6 months in February and 4.2 months in March 2012. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six- to seven-month supply is considered normal.
The Realtors group also reported that homes continued to move off the market faster in March, with the median number of days it took to sell a single-family home decreasing to 29.4 in March, down from 34.2 days in February and 52.2 days for the same period a year ago.
Survey: Americans Increasingly Say Now Is a Good Time to Sell a Home
Nearly twice as many people believe now is a good time to sell a home compared with a year earlier, according to a new survey from Fannie Mae.
The federal mortgage agency’s National Housing Survey for March found that 26 percent of Americans believe the time is right for homesellers, up from 14 percent in March 2012. Housing sentiment has been climbing steadily over the past 12 months as home prices posted double-digit increases and mortgage interest rates remain near record-low levels.
Those who believe now is a good time to buy, meanwhile, have held steady over the past year at 71 percent.
“Despite an uptick in concern expressed about the direction of the economy, it appears consumers believe that the housing recovery will march on,” Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Doug Duncan, said in a statement accompanying the survey.
“Housing sentiment remains unshaken from the highs of the last few months. At the same time, perhaps driven by the experience of the past several years, consumers remain cautious in their housing outlook.”
The number of survey respondents who favor selling a home has hit the highest level since Fannie Mae introduced the National Housing Survey in June 2010.
Also, 48 percent believe home prices will continue rising next year, up from 35 percent a year ago and another record high.
Fannie Mae said Americans are increasingly optimistic about the housing markets even as they are slightly more pessimistic about their personal finances and the economy.
The survey found 35 percent of respondents believing the economy is on the right track, down from 38 percent in February but up from 34 percent in March 2012.
The survey found 39 percent of March respondents expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year, compared with 41 percent in February and 44 percent a year earlier. The share of those who believe the economy is on the right track fell three percentage points to 35 percent from February to March, but that number was up 1 point from a year earlier.
Marin-Hawaii Connection
I have my second home on Maui at Napili Shores. Living on Maui & Oahu, left a lasting imprint on my soul. The warm & gentle breezes that caress and de-stress, warm water clear enough to see coral, fish and turtles, sand so light it brings delight, sunrises and sunsets that shimmer in my minds eye, the sweet smell of topical flowers, & a place where whales never cease to amaze, all call to me. I chose Napili Bay for its peacefulness, serenity and no high rises! It is a low-key, none-glitzy, knock dead gorgeous location.
Buying this vacation rental has been one of my best investments. If you find that “Hawaii Is Calling”, call me. I am a real estate agent in Marin County (North of SF) and have developed close ties to many agents who sell in Hawaii. I am happy to put you in touch with them. My favorite Maui connection is Gerrianne Sakamoto – a top agent on Maui, but she sells all over the islands. If you click on her link, you can check out properties on Maui and elsewhere.
Aloha and look forward to hearing from you!
Real Estate Roundup: Lending Standards Loosen, Bright Forecasts for Spring
Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious:
LENDERS OK SMALLER DOWN PAYMENTS
Mortgage lenders are easing back on tight loan standards that have put a crimp in the housing recovery, according to a recent CNBC report — just in time for the spring homebuying season.
Buyers may qualify for loans with down payments below the 20 percent minimum that lenders have demanded in recent years. CNBC said loans with down payments of 3 to 10 percent accounted for 18 percent of mortgage giant Fannie Mae’s business in the third quarter of 2012, although loans with minimal down payments require private mortgage insurance.
“In general, lenders have been willing to do more than they may have been willing to do in the past,” John Forlines, chief credit officer for Fannie Mae’s single family business, said in the CNBC report. “Our requirements have not changed significantly, but other parties taking risk, the lenders and mortgage insurance companies in particular, have been more flexible than they may have been in the past.”
FROM GLOOM TO BLOOM
Freddie Mac’s latest Economic and Housing Market Outlook predicts the healthiest spring homebuying seasonsince 2007.
The March report said home sales this year will be 8 to 10 percent higher than in 2012, with steadily rising home prices, continued low mortgage rates, and gradually improving consumer confidence.
“History shows us not all economic recoveries are created equal, and consumer confidence mirrors this fact,” Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft said in a statement accompanying the report. ”With the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent highs in the stock market are a welcome signal of better times ahead. But it will be the gradually declining unemployment rate and steadily improving housing market that will deliver broad-based economic benefits for Americans and, in turn, support the overall recovery.”
DREAMING BIG ABOUT HOME OWNERSHIP
Nearly nine of every 10 Americans dream of becoming homeowners, according to a recent survey by JPMorgan Chase.
Eighty-seven percent of survey respondents said owning their home is something they have always wanted, with 66 percent believing that housing is a good financial investment and 75 percent seeing it as an important part of raising a family.
HOME SALES, PRICES RISING
Existing-home sales rose solidly in February, the 20th straight month they have topped year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home sales increased also, for the 12th consecutive month.
“Job growth in the improving economy and pent-up demand are causing both home sales and rental leasing to rise,” Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Though home prices are rising much faster than rents, historically low mortgage rates are still making home purchases affordable. The only headwinds are limited housing inventory, which varies greatly around the country, and credit conditions that remain too restrictive.”
HOMEBUILDING IN HIGH GEAR
U.S. housing starts in February were up nearly 28 percent from a year earlier, and up 63 percent in Western states, the U.S. Commerce Department said last week, confirming earlier reports that the homebuilding industry’s recovery has shifted into high gear.
While housing starts have increased dramatically over the past year, economists point out that home construction is still less than half of what it was during its pre-recession peak and is near levels seen in the early 1990s.
(Illustration courtesy of 401(K) 2013m via Flickr.)
Recent Posts
- 39 Ethel Ave, Mill Valley CA
- 212 Lovell Ave, Mill Valley CA
- Napili Shores Rental
- The Best Offense is Good Defense
- Marin County: Q1 Results
- The Bay Area Sellers’ Market Heats Up
- Tight Supply of Homes Driving Prices Higher, Holding Back Sales in Bay Area, California
- Survey: Americans Increasingly Say Now Is a Good Time to Sell a Home
- Marin-Hawaii Connection
- Real Estate Roundup: Lending Standards Loosen, Bright Forecasts for Spring
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